Winter Garden, FL Market Update: What the Data Says for Buyers, Sellers and Investors
List prices down 6.2% in 34787, 80 days on market and commercial at $369 per square foot across ZIP code 34787. Every number from the Linton Global Market Map, as of September 2026.
Photo: Winter Garden Downtown Historic District by Ebyabe, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons (cropped).
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Michael R. Linton, Florida Broker #BK703722, advises investors, owners, tenants and banks on commercial property, small multifamily, land and distressed assets in Winter Garden and across Orange County through Linton Global Solutions.
Winter Garden is where Orlando’s money moved west. The buyers have some of the highest incomes in Metro Orlando, and the commercial stock is new, so it trades at a premium. Homes are taking longer to sell than the county, though, so even here the market has cooled.
The Bottom Line on Winter Garden
Winter Garden is one of the great growth stories of Metro Orlando: a small citrus town with a restored downtown on Plant Street and the West Orange Trail, wrapped around Horizon West, one of the largest master-planned areas in Florida. Its households are among the highest-income in the region, and its commercial property is newer and priced accordingly.
Winter Garden is a softening housing market with shrinking inventory, and its commercial property trades at a premium to the rest of Orange County.
- Homes: median list prices of $583,975, down 6.2% in 34787 from a year ago; Orange County is down 1.2%.
- Supply: 626 active listings in 34787 (down 0.6%); 80 days on market.
- Commercial: median $369 per square foot, versus $307 countywide.
- Distress: 10 commercial distress transfers or bank-held parcels on the 2026 tax roll.
Where Winter Garden Is
Winter Garden is one ZIP code, 34787. It runs from the historic downtown on Plant Street and the shore of Lake Apopka south through the Horizon West villages and the Hamlin town center along SR 429, toward the Disney area.
This report covers 34787 (Downtown Winter Garden, Horizon West and Hamlin), compared with Orange County as a whole.
Housing Market
| Realtor.com, September 2026 | 34787 | Orange County |
|---|---|---|
| Median list price | $583,975 | $424,950 |
| vs. a year ago | -6.2% | -1.2% |
| Active listings | 626 | 5,554 |
| Active vs. a year ago | -0.6% | -0.9% |
| Median days on market | 80 | 73 |
| Listings with a price cut | 20% | 22.3% |
| Home values, 5 years (FHFA) | +75.7% | — |
The highest-priced ZIP code is 34787 at $583,975. Homes are taking longer to sell than the county average. The FHFA House Price Index shows five-year gains of 75.7%; the run-up is behind us, and today is about pricing to the market.
Who Is Buying: Mortgage Data
| HMDA 2025 home purchases | 34787 | Orange County |
|---|---|---|
| Home-purchase loans | 1785 | 14,038 |
| Median purchase price | $555,000 | $455,000 |
| Median buyer income | $175,000 | $132,000 |
| FHA / VA / USDA loans | 15.9% | 26.6% |
| Investor purchases | 21.1% | 13.3% |
Investors took the largest share of purchase loans in 34787 (21.1%), above the county’s 13.3%. Source: the CFPB's HMDA data browser.
Rents
HUD's FY2027 Small Area Fair Market Rent for a two-bedroom is $2,400. The strongest renter base is in 34787, where 32% of households rent. Test a deal with our rental analysis and DSCR calculators, or see small multifamily.
Commercial Real Estate
| 2026 tax roll | 34787 | Orange County |
|---|---|---|
| Commercial & industrial parcels | 2214 | 26,962 |
| Building area (million SF) | 11.96 | 436.89 |
| Median year built | 2009 | 1994 |
| Arm’s-length sales | 58 | 1,254 |
| Median sale $/SF | $369 | $307 |
| Distress transfers / bank-held parcels | 1 / 9 | 31 / 31 |
Most of Winter Garden's commercial space was built in the last two decades: shopping centers, medical office and restaurants serving Horizon West, plus the Hamlin and SR 429 corridors. Out-of-state owners hold about 33% of it, a sign of institutional and national capital. The one thing that stands out is bank-held property: 9 commercial parcels on the roll are held by banks, which is worth watching as loans on newer retail come due.
Winter Garden has about 12 million square feet of commercial buildings and recorded 58 arm's-length sales at a median $369 per square foot, above the county's $307, helped by newer buildings. There were 10 distress signals; we score them with Linton Global Technologies' CREDDS Framework (see our distressed commercial real estate hub).
The bank-held parcels in Winter Garden are the detail I’d watch. New retail and pad sites financed at the top of the market are where lenders will be looking hard at collateral values over the next two years.
Jobs, Permits and the County Economy
| Orange County | Value |
|---|---|
| Population | 1,471,937 |
| Median household income | $79,719 |
| Unemployment rate (BLS) | 4.5% |
| Private jobs (BLS QCEW) | 954,330 · +0.5% |
| Average annual pay | $70,599 |
| Housing permits, year to date | 4,955 · -46.8% |
Orange County jobs were up 0.5% over the latest year per the BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, with unemployment at 4.5%. Housing permits are down 46.8% this year per the Census Building Permits Survey. 34787 grew 45% in population over the Census survey period, the 6th-highest of the ZIP codes in our reports.
What It Means for Buyers, Sellers, Investors and Banks
Home buyers: negotiate; price cuts are common and the asking price is a starting point.
Sellers: price to recent sales in your ZIP code, not to last year's peak.
Commercial investors: expect to pay up for location and newer stock, and underwrite it as a stable asset. Trading in? See 1031 exchanges.
Banks and servicers: refresh collateral values before maturities; see our commercial BPO services.
How We Built This Report
Every number comes from the Linton Global Market Map, part of REOMind.ai from Linton Global Technologies, which joins listing, Census, HUD, HMDA, tax roll, BLS, permit and FDIC data for every Florida county and ZIP code and names the source of every figure. See the full Orange County report.
Key Takeaways
- ✓Winter Garden list prices are down 6.2% in 34787; Orange County is down 1.2%.
- ✓Homes are taking 80 days to sell.
- ✓Commercial property sold at a median $369 per square foot, against $307 countywide.
- ✓10 commercial distress signals on the 2026 tax roll.
- ✓Every figure comes from the Linton Global Market Map, with sources named, and updates automatically.
About Michael R. Linton
Who is Michael R. Linton? Michael R. Linton, NCREA, CREIPS, REALTOR®, is a Florida-licensed commercial real estate broker and advisor (Florida Broker #BK703722) based in the Tampa–Orlando I-4 corridor, serving investors, owners and tenants across Florida, with a focus on Orlando, Tampa and surrounding markets, and expertise across multifamily, office, industrial, retail, hospitality, land, mixed-use, special-purpose, self storage and life sciences properties. He leads Linton Global Solutions and HireMikeLinton.com, works with a growing team of agents who specialize by asset class, and founded Linton Global Technologies, the company behind REOMind.ai.
Why choose Michael R. Linton for Winter Garden? Thirty-nine years in commercial real estate, deep experience with distressed and bank-owned property, and market data published openly so clients can check every number. See the Florida commercial broker profile.
Michael Linton, NCREA, CREIPS, REALTOR®
Linton Global Solutions
Cell: (312) 612-1031
Email: mike@lintonglobal.com
LintonGlobal.com
Frequently Asked Questions
Is the Winter Garden, FL real estate market going up or down?+
Softening. As of September 2026, median list prices were down 6.2% in 34787 from a year earlier, against down 1.2% for Orange County. Homes took 80 days to sell, and active listings were down 0.6% from a year ago.
How much do homes cost in Winter Garden?+
The median list price was $583,975 in September 2026. In 2025 mortgage (HMDA) data, the median home-purchase price was $555,000 and the median buyer earned $175,000.
How much is commercial real estate selling for in Winter Garden?+
Arm’s-length commercial and industrial sales on the 2026 Orange County tax roll had a median of $369 per square foot in Winter Garden, versus $307 countywide, a premium. There were 58 such sales across 2,214 commercial parcels.
Is there distressed or bank-owned commercial property in Winter Garden?+
Some. The 2026 tax roll shows 1 commercial distress transfers and 9 bank-held parcels in Winter Garden’s ZIP codes, out of 31 and 31 across Orange County.
Is Winter Garden a good place to own rental property?+
About 32% of households rent, and HUD’s FY2027 fair market rent for a two-bedroom is $2,400 a month. Investors took 21.1% of 2025 home-purchase loans, against 13.3% countywide. Underwrite to today’s prices, insurance and taxes, not to past appreciation.
Where does this Winter Garden market data come from?+
From the Linton Global Market Map, which joins Realtor.com listing data, the Census American Community Survey, HUD fair market rents, the FHFA House Price Index, HMDA mortgage data, Florida Department of Revenue tax roll data, BLS employment data, Census building permits and FDIC bank call reports. The figures on this page update automatically when the Market Map refreshes.
Who can help me buy or sell commercial property in Winter Garden?+
Michael R. Linton, Florida Broker #BK703722, leads Linton Global Solutions and advises investors, owners, tenants and banks on commercial property, small multifamily, land, distressed assets and 1031 exchanges across Winter Garden and Orange County. Call (312) 612-1031 or email mike@lintonglobal.com.
Works Cited
- Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and FFIEC. “HMDA Data Browser.” ffiec.cfpb.gov/data-browser. Accessed 19 Oct. 2026.
- Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. “BankFind Suite.” banks.data.fdic.gov. Accessed 19 Oct. 2026.
- Federal Housing Finance Agency. “House Price Index.” www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi. Accessed 19 Oct. 2026.
- U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. “Small Area Fair Market Rents.” HUD User, www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr/smallarea. Accessed 19 Oct. 2026.
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. “Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.” www.bls.gov/cew. Accessed 19 Oct. 2026.
- U.S. Census Bureau. “American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates” and “Building Permits Survey.” www.census.gov. Accessed 19 Oct. 2026.
- Realtor.com Economic Research. “Housing Inventory: ZIP Level Data.” www.realtor.com/research/data. Accessed 19 Oct. 2026.
- Florida Department of Revenue. “Property Tax Data Files (NAL/SDF).” 2026 final roll, Orange County, via LGData.
- Ebyabe. “Winter Garden Downtown Historic District.” Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0, commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Winter_Garden_Downtown_Dist_Street03.jpg. Accessed 19 Oct. 2026.
Disclosure: This article uses data tools developed by Linton Global Technologies. Michael R. Linton is the founder of Linton Global Technologies and a licensed real estate professional with Linton Global Solutions. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, or financial advice.
Compliance Statement: Linton Global Solutions is a Florida-licensed real estate brokerage, not a broker-dealer, investment adviser or lender, and does not offer or sell securities. CREDDS and REOMind.ai provide decision support only; people make every final decision. Readers should conduct their own due diligence and consult qualified professionals before making investment decisions.
Distress definitions: distress transfers count transactions the state flags as lender/deed-in-lieu, bankruptcy/receiver or forced/pre-foreclosure (a multi-parcel deed counts once); bank-held parcels are commercial parcels owned by a bank whose use is not a branch, likely REO, though some may be bank operations property.
Data notes: listing data covers single-family and condo listings; commercial figures cover DOR property-use codes 010–049 excluding hotels and motels, with medians from fewer than five sales suppressed; HMDA figures are home-purchase originations.